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Winning = culture × intensity × time. C-I-T
The exact same team, facility and budget which ended mid-table in second tier, could be winning the top flight and qualify for champions league just 2 years later.
Kjetil Knutsen (Bodø/Glimt, 2018-) Second-tier to Champion League regular with the same budget.
Eric Roy (Brest, 2023 - 2026, rest in peace) 17th placed to Champions league the year after with the same squad.
Franck Haise (RC Lens, 2020-2024) 14. Placed in second-tier to Champions League within few years.
Urs Fischer (Union Berlin, 2018-2023) 8. Placed in second-tier to Champions League within few years.
(1) Winning games, finishing first, runner-up after runner-up. Best in the country. Then the continent.
(2) Winning capital. High ROI on academy and player sales. Dont calculate upside, whatever happens, happens, the model was never to win the league.
— Brighton, Lille, Atalanta, AZ
(3) Winning as a social place. The primary social arena for tens of thousands in challenging boroughs and environments, without it, many people loose hope.
— Millwall, Palermo, Dynamo Dresden
(C1) Create the environment, dont force it. Culture is the context, the lawn where flowers will grow. Bring back the fun. Remove fear. Make the training more fun than matches. The coaching staff have a flat structure, the player group respond as one. Creation of captain teams and several boards with responsibility. Make every player feel seen and have a voice. Focus on smaller training groups in the day-to-day training. Smaller teams, higher frequency, more actions, more fun.
(C2) Mute the result, lock it at 0-0 forever. Leading 2-0 or being down 0-2 should have no relevance or influence in how the team is playing.
(I1) Higher intensity in training than in matches. Playing a match should feel like touching cold snow, when your hands are already freezing.
(I2) Have one annual event known as the best week of the year. Make it harmless, exhausting and fun. X hours running hills in intervals. Water bottles, dates, dried mango and peaches everywhere. Make them tired, then teach them to do it tired. «Fine, then I will do it tired».
An Icelandic manager got sacked, and almost immediately got hired by a rival team in a horrific state, just above the relegation spot. When press asked how much time he needed before his impact, he responded: 6 weeks.
He shortened the meetings. Shortened the sessions. Raised the intensity. Went back to one touch, two touch, movement and direct play. According to several players, they ran more meters in the new 60 minutes than in the old 90.
| Before | After | |
|---|---|---|
| Meeting | 30 min analysis | 5 min |
| Session | 90 min, freezes | 60 min, no freezes |
| Focus | tactical inputs | basics, 1v1s, combinations |
| Meters run | less | more |
Six weeks later, the team has gone from relegation fight to fighting for a spot in the Europe qualifications, playing like they could also beat death and taxes.
The most important thing is to have a clear playing philosophy, it will help T, but also to accept and acknowledge that the playing philosophy is the minimum base level, nowhere but up, its a climb. Treat every process like a climb. Always look at what you have already in the squad, and pay attention to your reserves and academy.
The philosophy is rather build than buy. Rather add seats to academy boys than players aged 32+. After 12 weeks, it won’t matter if its the academy boy or the established one who plays, the system is playing, players are camouflaged and anyone can do the job it requires with C,I and T. One word: Endurance. The game will weight heavily on numerical overloads in the center of the pitch. Be unpredictable, be alive, be full of surprises.
Make sure to have different players in the squad, especially the central line.
Fullbacks are the providers. High and wide along the touchline. They must be constant, both must be able to spam pin-point crosses with the wrist and curve crosses with both legs, and foremost pin-point long throw ins. Goal is high-volume delivery.
Centerbacks are rooks. Tidy. They work vertical, and always in-line. Identical qualities is preferred here. Either they are deciders or physical. Push on both.
Midfield is industrial. The nr.6 is preferred at max 1.75 m / 5´9, low center of gravity is essential for the ball carrier. Box entries via short passes.
Example; Lobotka, Vitinha, Verratti types are essential for this model to work. The low gravity makes the flow and quick turns a key for the build-up section in pipeline 1.
Pipeline 2 is when the nr.8 and nr.10 operate like horses, two forward and one to the side, diagonal line. Their movement work closely with the wingers, often to be right under them.
The 1/3 to 2/3 half is linked with a disguised ball of iron.
The 2 wingers move in disguise programmed to face the wrong way towards goals all of a sudden to receive the iron ball before a quick support touch is available to the midfield who is facing the right way transiting towards goal. 2/3 and 3/3 are rapid short combinations.
One selected player will have the queen-role. This player is free to move anywhere it wants.
Wingers operate under the radar. Primary job is movement. They do not stay wide nor cross. Pipeline 3 is looking for quick combinations in the center before running into the gap between the opponent's full-back and center-back to receive vertical through-balls. Wingers invert a push into half-spaces to act as a second striker, in build-up drop deep to form a box midfield.
As one of my studies shared in selected research, here are some selected findings. Models built in R on eight seasons of public match data. 16 teams, top-2 tiers, top-10 leagues across Europe, South America and Japan. Due to the nature of competitive sports, only selected findings will be shared, briefly:
(1) The system works against almost any formation. Against 7 different formations, results were nearly identical.
| Formation | Points per game |
|---|---|
| 4-2-3-1 | X |
| 3-5-2 | X |
| 4-4-2 | X |
| 4-3-3 flat | X |
| 4-1-2-3 doctrine | X |
| 3-4-2-1 | X |
| 2-3-5 chaos | X |
(2) Weather and pitch matter more than formation: wet grass helps, wind and mud hurt.
(2.1) When playing away, play the weather and pitch, not the team.
(2.1.1) Play wet artificial somewhere above the Arctic circle, not the 4-3-3.
(2.1.2) Bring your own food and blankets.
(2.1.3) After the 20. Round in 24/25 season. FCM lead 2.BL without winning at home.
(2.2) When playing home. Become the house.
(2.2.1) Invest in chefs. Make the best away buffet in the league, gifts, smiles, a genuinely warm welcome.
(2.2.2) Broken scoreboard. Frozen on 0-0. No clocks or windows. Monitor also show possession frozen on 75-25.
(2.2.3) Make the pitch. Wet or dry. Change every single match.
(3) Giving the striker the free role gave the best results, in both attack and defence.
(3.1) The Harry Kane-role is well proven, however, it’s becoming obvious.
(1) Queen roulette.
Don't pick the free-role player before the match. Switch it at minute 60 to confuse the opponent.
(2) The carousel.
At minute 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, three players silently swap roles at the next dead ball. This is flow, done by natural automation depending on the game´s circumstances.
(3) Good luck
Last but not least. Scout the opposition's latest match or open training. Their manager dont know about the fullback whose passing dies after one early mistake or the winger who stops defensive work after 60 minutes. We do. Their coach finds out during the match or in the after analysis next week. It’s the job of the management to identify and follow this up. The quality of the scouting and awareness wins the game.